Thaksin bringing his message home

Deposed prime minister's offer to speak to local media, and its timing, smack of a well-planned strategy

It is clear that Thaksin Shinawatra is on to something that could potentially do further damage to the Surayud government and the Council for National Security (CNS). Thaksin has been able to observe the country's strengths and weaknesses from abroad. He knew that the weeks and months ahead would be a vulnerable time for the interim government and the military council. Public expectations keep rising as the government's approval rating plummets.

Polls show that the popularity of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has fallen by more than 27 per cent since he took office. Considering that a similar poll four months earlier put his approval rating at 75 per cent, that could spell trouble.

The deposed leader and his spin doctors sense that this is the best time for an offensive. Through his lawyer, Noppadon Pattama, Thaksin has said he would like to give interviews to the Thai media because he wants to communicate directly with rural people - his traditional supporters.

It will be interesting to see how the Thai media react to Thaksin's overture. It is possible that the major vernacular press will jump at the chance of an exclusive interview, because this is a hot issue. Of course, they will be falling into a trap set by Thaksin and his PR team.

If Thai Rath, Daily News or Matichon take the bait, his interviews would come with preconditions that allow Thaksin to control and manipulate the message that he wants to put across. One can observe his strategy from the interviews he gave the Western media, in which he sought to discredit the government and its economic policies. He emphasised throughout that he was an elected prime minister and a democratic leader. But everybody in Thailand knows for fact that he was a dictator who abused power and used it to advance his own personal interests and those of his cronies.

Never mind the foreign press, they do not have recollection of these facts; it is the duty of Thai media to write and tell the truth. The next challenge is whether the editors of these vernacular papers use their editorial judgement or become guinea pigs.

Now that Thaksin has received maximum mileage from the foreign media, it is the right time for him to tackle the local media. With the Thai press, Thaksin will certainly attack the government's economic policies again and focus on the standard of living. He might also want to say something related to the monarchy. Backed by secret polls and statistics, Thaksin will attempt to convey to rural Thais that their lives are no better today than in the years under his rule. He will deliver the message in short, crisp Thai. Any Thai media that care to take this message directly to the North and Northeast regions will find willing ears and supporters.

Of course, the CNS and the government are now at their wits' end because they have incompetent officials working for them. Good intentions are not sufficient to run a country in crisis, especially in the aftermath of a coup. Right after their faux pas over media control, the CNS and government pledged to respect the free press. It must be reiterated here that when Thaksin was in power, he did not care about press freedom. He frequently harassed the press. He sought to silence the press whenever he could; those that failed to comply were pursued relentlessly. Government and state enterprises' advertising budgets were used effectively as a tool to influence the media. The broadcast media have always been under the government's control, but it was under Thaksin that broadcasters were actively used as propaganda machines.

The CNS and government must get rid of factors that are targets for Thaksin's criticism and onslaught. The election date should be announced and martial law lifted in the remaining provinces, especially in the North and Northeast. Probes into Thaksin's malfeasance as well as that of his former cronies must be accelerated. The government must show that it can handle complex economic, political and diplomatic issues. If it continues to act like an old hack, it deserves to be whipped.