Embattled thaksin may opt to change tack
'Failure' of street protests may spur rethink of strategy
Exiled leader Thaksin Shinawatra must have felt knocked about over the past few days, as he has been bombarded with charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The list is long:
His nine-year-old Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party was dissolved;
His and his family's assets were frozen;
He and his wife Khunying Pojaman were accused of abuse of power in the Ratchadaphisek land deal;
And now, the Department of Special Investigation has charged him, his wife, and sister-in-law with concealing assets in a case that links the British Virgin Islands-registered Win Mark with SC Asset.
All these charges could seriously bruise Thaksin, as it is obvious the junta wants to make him and the Thai Rak Thai Party political history.
Moreover, his fight-back against the junta, by trying to use supporters and anti-coup protesters to put pressure on the junta, has failed to gain momentum. There have been fewer protesters than expected. Surely, Thaksin needs to rethink his strategy. But what would a new plan involve?
First, he would probably want to make sure the constitution draft is rejected in the national referendum.
Second, he needs to find political "spare part" parties - as nominees - in case key men from his disbanded party are unable to register the old name and run in the next poll.
One source has said Thaksin has his eye on the Prachakorn Thai Party as one of the spare-part parties. Former Thai Rak Thai MPs could contest the election as its candidates.
Third, if the Thai Rak Thai could be reborn, Somchai Wongsawat, brother-in-law of Thaksin, may be set to become Thaksin's successor as the new party leader.
Somchai, who resigned as permanent secretary of the Labour Department shortly after the coup, would be a trusted choice for Thaksin to take care of his legacy and one of his most precious treasures - the Thai Rak Thai Party.
Last, instead of instigating protests in Bangkok, which have not worked, as they have been blocked by the junta - and also won little support from the middle class - he could order his former MPs back to their provincial bases to rally against the junta.
Such a strategy may help buy time. Thaksin could also wait and see if divisions in the Council for National Security (CNS), such as the race to be the next Army chief, or scandals involving CNS members, develop. If things went as planned, Thaksin could hope that his party, whatever its name might be, could win the ballot.
The CNS would not be able to block his comeback - if he could muster the votes his supporters may not allow the junta to do that.
It seems that Thaksin has realised that the best option, now, may be to wait and fight the next election under his old party name - Thai Rak Thai.
Rumours have spread that the ousted prime minister is willing to spend Bt10 billion to win the next election. It is said he has prepared Bt3 billion for the campaign - and the rest is aimed at ousting the CNS, by whatever means.
But that plan might be suspended temporarily because Thaksin's speech on Friday at Sanam Luang could be interpreted as him being ready to negotiate a "cease-fire" with the CNS and government.
A former New Aspiration Party (NAP) member said veteran Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was trying to gather the party's former MPs to resurrect the NAP to run in the next election, if the Thai Rak Thai is not allowed to run.
The source said Chavalit had guaranteed that if the NAP wins the election, they would grant an amnesty to the 111 banned executives from Thai Rak Thai. All Chavalit needs is financial support.
However, Thaksin might think carefully whether to pay at any cost. In the present political situation, it seems that Thaksin could face even more corruption charges. That raises questions as to how far Chavalit or others could really go to help Thaksin - and whether he can be saved from the courts.
The money he pours in might go right down the drain.
