The Ahmadinejad show
The macabre show Iran staged for 13 days after seizing the 15 British sailors and marines whom it released Thursday has a feel of deja vu. In 1979, Iranian students stormed the U.S. Embassy, took 52 staff hostage and taunted them and the United States for 444 days. Similar theatrics were at play this past week, if for a shorter time.
The 14 men and one woman were paraded on TV, where they apologized for straying into Iranian waters (something the British government denies). They were finally released by a belligerent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an Easter "gift to the British people" — but only after he had lectured Britain for colonial meddling in Persia and pinned a medal on the chest of a Revolutionary Guard commander who captured them.
Just as with the U.S. hostages, the public theatrics have to be read for what they are: a reflection of the power struggles within the Iranian leadership. Ahmadinejad may be the president. But his actions are restricted by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as the Council of Guardians, made up of religious leaders and lawyers. From that perspective, the spectacle presents reason to hope, and potential openings to exploit.
For all of Ahmadinejad's bluster, his hard-line faction clearly lost out to the pragmatists. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's approach helped. He did not rise to Ahmadinejad's bait.
What clinched the release was old-fashioned, high-level diplomacy between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, who's considered a pragmatist, and Blair's top foreign policy adviser, Nigel Sheinwald. Though both sides deny it, there might well have been some quid pro quo. A kidnapped Iranian diplomat was released in Iraq, and Red Cross personnel were granted access to captured Iranians in U.S. custody.
What's important is that Iran's leaders experienced solid international disapproval as Ahmadinejad's antics perpetuated the image of a petulant rogue nation. It's already suffering from tightened United Nations sanctions. Perhaps the leadership understood that its dreams of being seen as a great power would be undermined by continuing the crisis — and that working with the international community has greater benefits.
A similar shift on Iran's nuclear weapons program would require equally deft handling. But the crisis has provided encouraging signs — with more than a little help from Ahmadinejad's overblown performance.
